Incredibly, the hedgehogs (narrow) experts performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their domain of expertise. They actually got worse as they accumulated credentials and experience in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more they could fit any story to their worldview.
...Viewing every world event through their preferred keyhole made it easy to fashion compelling stories about anything that occurred and to tell the stories with adamant authority. In other words, they make great TV